Ron Paul Chances ? His the One?

Here are some reasons, to be refuted, on Ron Paul's chances. I. Dr. Ron Paul can’t win 1. There's more to life than winning. Even if the Congressman from Texas doesn't win this time, still, he is spreading the libertarian message like pretty much NO ONE else before him. (Yes, Ayn Rand, Murray Rothbard and Ludwig von Mises popularized libertarianism, but none of them did so in the political sphere). Our refusal to support him can't help this campaign. I would think that as a libertarian, we would want to help this effort, whether Dr. Paul wins or not. We should all get behind him as strongly as we can. This is perhaps the best opportunity in a long while to introduce libertarianism to the wider public. 2. Barry Goldwater didn't "win," even though he got the Republican nomination. But, he set the groundwork for Ronald Reagan, who did win, later on. Even if Ron Paul doesn't win, if he does well he can set things up for the next libertarian candidate who can potentially attract masses of people to the libertarian message, and then perhaps even "win." We can all help with this initiative. (I'm not a fan of either Goldwater or Reagan, since I don't regard either as libertarians; I'm only using them as an example to illustrate the point.) 3. Don't be sure Ron can't win. No one, right before the fall of the Berlin Wall, or of the USSR, thought that either of these things would happen, even the "experts." No one now thinks Ron can win.... 4. Here's the case for Dr. Paul winning the Republican nomination. The Iraqi "police action" deteriorates even further. Ron is the ONLY Republican candidate who will be no Johnny come lately to the anti-war position. Mitt Romney changes his mind on this, but is dismissed as the waffler he is. The others split the pro–Iraqi war Republican vote. One by one they fall out. (Even at this early date, Ron Paul already has more money in the bank than John McCain. Strange, it turns out that the one Congressman who demands fiscal responsibility of this august body is also the only candidate who is responsible with his own money.) Ron sticks it out until the bitter end. He doesn't need as much money as the others, since his supporters are very committed to him. Let's say, finally, it is Ron vs. Jailiani (aka: Gulag Giuliani, Il Duce, Benito Giuliani, Ghouliani, Gestapo Giuliani.) Then, a new scandal erupts (Rudy did drugs, was divorced even more than we think he was, harassed even more innocent businessmen, whatever). Dr. Paul wins the Republican nomination. In their defense, it cannot be denied, the other Republican candidates will say that the war was not a bad idea but it was badly executed, "and here's how things will be different when I am President." But the American people are not infinitely stupid (even Caplan does not go that far). They have already heard this sort of thing hundreds of times. By the time the primaries are over and the convention begins, they will have heard it even more. Eventually, enough of them will tire of it, particularly as the body bags mount up. 5. Here's the case for Dr. Ron Paul winning the overall election, against whoever the Democrats nominate. Now Ron faces, say, a Hillary–Obama ticket. He kicks their butt, again, over the deteriorating Iraqi war situation. There is no way these war-mongering chameleons will be able to attain the mantle of isolationist foreign policy. With a country heartily sick of U.S. Imperialism, the Republicans hold their noses and vote for Ron against the Hated Hillary. The Democrats desert in droves over the war. It is a super "keep clean for Gene" (McCarthy) scenario. Likely? No. Impossible? Not at all. Ron Paul will actually have a better chance in the general election than in the primaries, much like Rudy. 6. Can't happen? Give me some odds on a bet. (According to some polls, the odds against Ron winning are 200-1). I'm willing to put up $1 against the $200 of all suckers, sorry, I meant takers, that my favorite Texas Congressman will win.

Public Comments

1. Dream on but it ain't gonna happen.
2. Ron Paul is a politician. That should say it all. He is untrustable. He hasn't yet made the case for me to give him my vote.
3. Ron Paul is more likely to have someone spit on him than to win the election.
4. Until Ron Paul stops crying foul over every modern American political decision he won't be taken seriously.
5. I am a Ron Paul supporter, but realistically I don't think he has a chance. The liberal mindset is so entrenched in this country, there are millions of people who think anyone who talks about personal freedom is a dangerous kook. The mainstream media will smear him, call him an isolationist, loudly expose his support for legalizing drugs, and do anything to make him look like a monster. The odds of that happening are 1 to 1. It WILL happen, mark my words. If anything good comes out of Ron Paul's candidacy, it will be the consolidation of libertarians and freedom lovers, and the exposure of the ruthlessness of the liberal proto-fascists.
6. I like your thinking but you are too negative! I don't know if you noted the enthusiasm of his supports in Iowa but it was remarkable! People are truly fed up with the totally out of control government and our loss of liberty. His grass roots support is truly phenomenal and will only continue to build as we get closer. As the masses listen to the good Dr. more and more they will come to realize this honorable man is not running for power or money but from a deep since of duty to the country and people he loves! He has no loyalties other than to us and our liberties. I truly don't think this country has had a more worthy candidate since colonial times. His main goal would be our return to a constitutional government. Dr. Ron Paul 2008!
7. 200-to-1, huh? Yeah, I'll take some of that action. I know it's not guaranteed, by any means, but it's more realistic than many people assume. I think your reasoning is on target. The other guys split the pro-war neocon vote, and the rest of us vote for Ron Paul by default. I've had a surprising number of friends from all over the spectrum join the Ron Paul bandwagon because, even though they don't agree with him on every position, they find him to be more palatable than any of the others. Interestingly, they don't all fit any category: young, old, liberal, conservative, Christian, atheist, etc. Personally, I still think it's an uphill battle, but I figure he's probably got about a 20% chance to win the Republican nomination. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess. It depends on who the opposition puts up. But truthfully, I believe Paul has a better chance of winning than any of the other Republicans, because, quite frankly, no one who seems to side with the current administration stands much of a chance of getting elected dogcatcher. I've been active in the Republican party for years, but I still have a hard time voting for them this time around. Imagine how the less involved people must feel. So, yeah, it's gonna be a fun campaign.
8. 1) He has zero chance of winning. 2) He's only the "1" for his cult followers.
9. Thank You. You bring up some very valid points. After 31 years in the Congress, Dr. Paul has proven that "He Alone Can't Be Bought Off", by the big money lobbyists, or anybody else. Now I believe it's up to you, me and the millions of other grass roots supporters, to Take Back Our Country, from those politicians that treat the sacred Constitution as just a piece of G-d d--b paper. Millions of patriotic Americans have given their lives to protect the principles written on that G-d D--b piece of paper, Freedom & Justice for All. The simple truth is, if Americans want ""LESS"" Government interference in their own personal lives and the lives of billions of people across the globe, Ron Paul is the "ONLY" candidate that will try his best to do just that. In My Humble Opinion, Ron Paul stands right up there with Washington, Jefferson, & Andrew Jackson as the greatest Patriotic Americans of all time, who didn't cave in to special interest groups. Now the burden is on our shoulders to spread the good word about exactly what Dr. Paul stands for to the un-informed American public: Un-empeded-Life-Liberty-& the-Pursuit-of-Happiness! Thank You! *************************************************************
10. What a really long and boring essay on nothing. Let us put it straight. He cannot be nominated. The teenies and liberals who are touting him do not make a difference. The people who run the party know he is a born loser and will not support hime.
11. I just completed a poll of those who are proven Republicans in Texas. Ron Paul came in 2nd behind Fred Thompson. Fred Thompson will not last long once he enters the race. There is no doubt in my mind that Dr. Paul will win the general election against any Democrat. I can't say that for Thompson. Dr. Paul would be the most honest candidate in history. It is his time.
12. Check out what the people had to say on this website when asked a similar question: http://www.9or18.com/politics/politics.html Go Ron!
13. At the moment, intrade.com puts Ron Paul at 2.8% compared to Fred Thompson's 33% of winning the Republican nomination. If you are not familiar with intrade.com, it is the online stock exchange for information prediction and speculation. It is interesting however to notice the ramp up of Ron Paul's price (probability) over time.
14. The one single most significant thing standing in the way of Paul's nomination and election is that he is not part of the machine that elects Presidents (of both parties); I think it's more as if he is one of its direst enemies. Without that machine, how does one get nominated, much less elected? I think it's naive to assume that federal elections in the US - and particularly, party nominations - are this much up for grabs, or truly in the hands of a wise public opinion. If ordinary people could, and did, vote according to rational evaluation, in their own best interest, Paul would have a chance, but I believe that ain't how it works. It's a marketing game, and Paul as a product is never getting off the Republican Party drawing board... he just does not owe the right people anything. Although I disagree with some of his positions and on some others I am not as radical as he, it's truly refreshing to me to see such an honest, principled, freethinking person running for the office in this day and age. His integrity is rock-solid and his values are, for the most part, all-American. I wish I didn't feel so cynical about the political process he (and anyone like him) would be up against... but to be otherwise would seem so naive.
15. Ron Paul does have a chance of winning - depending on how good a job we do in spreading his message of small government out there. People have been desperatly looking for a candidate like this - but most still have not heard his name! He has the strongest grassroots support system - the Paul Campaign's YouTube channel has 20,302 subscribers, giving the organization a powerful platform for their popular videos. The GOP candidate with the second most subscribers is Mitt Romney with 2,416. Barack Obama has 8,807. Dr. Paul also has 20,677 individuals in 428 cities across America signed up though Meetup.com to participate in grassroots activities. Meetup members have thus far held 1,127 events for Dr. Paul: walking neighborhoods, making signs and handing out literature. Barack Obama has 5,327 Meetup group members, while Mitt Romney has 29. Ron Paul also recently won the won the Coalition for New Hampshire Taxpayers (CNHT) straw poll at their annual picnic in Hopkinton, New Hampshire. Dr. Paul received 182 of 294 votes cast, or 65 percent. In second place was Rudy Giuliani with 24 votes, or 8 percent!
16. He could win. He has more support by display of online polls than anyone else by a large margin. Just because the media is ignorant and unfair doesn't mean they can change the polls when it comes to election time....or could they? I have faith he will do well.
17. Even if he doesn't stand a chance in hell and I think he does, I'm still going to vote for him. He's the only one that stands for our rights, stands for the constitution and wants to make things better. He has more supporters than you think. I'm tired of sheeple just laying down and taking the crap that gets dished out. People need to wake up. There is some real bad stuff going on in the government and if you want to make a change then you'll vote for Ron Paul too.